Exmouth and Exeter East, polls predict the general election

 The latest figures show a 77 per cent chance the Conservatives will win the seat, winning 39.4 per cent of the vote. But will lose a huge majority compared to the current East Devon seat, from almost 21 per cent in 2019, to nearly 12 per cent.

The second biggest party predicted to win the seat is Labour, 27 per cent of the vote going to them. Predicted votes 27.6 per cent.

The Liberal Democrat chance of winning is given as two per cent and their predicted vote share is just over 17 per cent.

See the full list on the Electoral Calculus website.

Others include the Reform and Green Party candidates, who are predicted to win 11.8 and 3.5 per cent of the vote share respectively.

The Pinhoe and two Topsham seats are predicted to go from Conservative to Labour, but every other seat (Exeter St Loyes, Broadclyst, Budleigh and Raleigh, Clyst Valley, Cranbrook, Exe Valley, Exe Valley, Exmouth Brixington, Exmouth Halsdon, Exmouth Littleham, Exmouth Town, Withycombe Raleigh, Whimple and Rockbeare and Woodbury and Lympstone) will all remain Conservative.

In response to this article, both Liberal Democrat candidate Paul Arnott and Independent candidate Dan Wilson have provided comments on these predictions.

Statement from Paul Arnott, LibDeb parliamentary candidate for Exmouth and East Exeter (and Leader of East Devon District Council), in response to Exmouth Journal ‘Exmouth and Exeter East, polls predict the general election’ online report

In summary, the Exmouth Journal article used latest polling predictions from the Electoral Calculus suggesting that the Conservatives would win the Exmouth and East Exeter seat at the July 4th General Election, with Labour in line for second place and the LibDems predicted a miserly two per cent chance of winning.

Paul Arnott, said: “Although I have great respect for Electoral Calculus and its usual rigorous techniques, quite honestly, it’s bonkers to use its current predictions because they don’t take into account reality on the ground here.

“The prediction is so awry from the facts I’m concerned it could mislead the electorate.

“The most recent, real, electoral evidence is the 2023/24 district and city elections in both East Devon and Exeter, comprehensively representing the whole constituency. 

“As it stands today - and this is consistent with the last five years - the following parties hold the following seats: Lib Dems: 12, Conservatives: 9, Labour: 6 and Greens: 2

“Labour has declared the constituency as a “non-battleground” seat, affirming the conviction that the party is a highly unlikely contender for the seat in Exmouth and East Exeter.

“Meanwhile, East Devon District Council, the largest in Devon with a population of 150,000, has been led by myself in a successful and respected Democratic Alliance of LibDems, Independents and Greens for the last five years.

“This overturned 45 years of Tory rule.

“Furthermore, the significance of the extraordinary success of Independent Parliamentary Candidate Claire Wright in the 2019 General Election should not be underestimated in our campaign:

“Claire won 25,000 votes, just 6,708 behind the Conservative candidate; Wright took 40 per cent of the vote while the Conservatives took 50 per cent, hurling her into the history books as the Independent Parliamentary Candidate with the highest ever number of votes in a General Election. No other Independent PC has won more than around 4,000 votes.

“When Claire first ran as a Parliamentary Candidate in 2015 she won 24 per cent of the vote, meanwhile the LibDems share went down by 24 per cent, suggesting a “direct transfer” according to an article published by politicalbetting.com today, Friday 24th May.

“Claire is backing myself and the LibDems because “only the LibDems can beat the Tories in the contest for the seat”.

“Both myself and Claire share the same values and we hope that the thousands upon thousands of constituents who were loyal to her will lend their votes to myself, resulting in a win for the LibDems – and ultimately, a win for the people of Exmouth and East Exeter.

Dan Wilson, Independent candidate said: "Lib Dem candidate Paul Arnott said in his response to the General Election being called that maths proves that only he can beat the Conservatives. Paul then gave a break down of District Councillors in this constituency and said that because there are more Lib Dem councillors (12) than Labour and Green candidates added together (10), he dubbed himself the only candidate who can beat the Tories. Worryingly, Paul chose not to include Independent Councillors in his sums, of which there are 9. This omission was deliberately misleading. As I said in my comments, the public have little enthusiasm for politicians and we can only change that with higher standards in public office and following the Nolan principles of selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty and leadership. "