Liberal Democrat candidate Paul Arnott has claimed the most recent election data is a truer reflection of his chances of securing the Exmouth and Exeter East seat than opinion polls.

Mr Arnott, who is leader of East Devon District Council, said the footprint of the constituency after the 2023 local elections delivered 12 Liberal Democrat councillors, more than the nine for the Conservatives, six for Labour and two for the Green Party.

“That indicates that only the Liberal Democrats can beat the Tories,” he told Radio Exe’s Devoncast podcast.

He added that in the 2019 election, which was for the East Devon seat that has now been split into new constituencies including Exmouth and Exeter East, independent candidate Claire Wright secured just over 40 per cent of the vote, equivalent to nearly 26,000 votes.

Ms Wright is supporting Mr Arnott’s campaign, leaving him hopeful this will boost his vote count.

However, data from ElectionPolling.co.uk shows that Exmouth and Exeter East – which some have dubbed ‘triple E’ – is only number 478 in terms of target seats for the Lib Dems, whereas it is seat 347 for Labour.

Furthermore, that site suggests Labour needs a 24 per cent swing based on the 2019 election outcome, compared to a 31 per cent swing required for the Lib Dems.

But Mr Arnott pointed to more recent data from Election Calculus, which gives his party a 34 per cent chance of winning the seat against Labour’s 12 per cent.

Olly Davey, the Green Party candidate for the seat, told the same podcast he had “thought long and hard” about the fact his candidacy could possibly split the anti-Conservative vote.

“It is forced on us by the flawed first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, and Lib Dem policy, like the Greens, has always been for some form of proportional representation,” he said.

“But the two big parties won’t touch it and we, the smaller parties, lose out. It’s inherently unfair as the votes that went to us disappear into the ether and don’t count once the winner is announced.

“But the reason I am standing is so that people have an opportunity to state that they believe in what the Greens stand for, including a fairer society, that is more sustainable and self-sufficient in its energy and not reliant on overseas imports, that reduces waste and looks after its citizens.

He added that had there been a primary – a way of organising voters from different parties to back one candidate – in his constituency like there was in South Devon he would have “embraced it”.

He acknowledged that it was “forced upon us by the system that people have to vote tactically, and I totally understand that people might wish to do that”.

But he stated that he “hated being defined by the Conservatives” in terms of voting preference.

“Why is it there’s the Conservative vote and then the non-Conservative vote?,” he said.

“I don’t agree with Labour on lots of things.”

The Exmouth and Exeter East seat is also being contested by Helen Dallimore for Labour, David George Reed for the Conservative and Unionist Party, Garry Sutherland for Reform UK and Dan Wilson, an independent candidate.